10-year term premium, Kim-Wright estimate

The Federal Reserve Board’s Kim–Wright ten-year term-premium estimate. This is a model output, can be revised, and is not interchangeable with the New York Fed’s ACM estimate.

percent

Snapshot: latest · fed-kw-tp10 source data

Data as of Oct 2, 2026 · Snapshot updated Oct 13, 2026 · Source: Federal Reserve Board, Three-Factor Nominal Term Structure Model (Kim-Wright), THREEFYTP10

Show the numbers (last 24)

Date	10-year term premium (Kim-Wright)
2026-10-02	1.085
2026-10-01	1.065
2026-09-30	1.077
2026-09-29	1.058
2026-09-28	1.047
2026-09-25	1.021
2026-09-24	1.026
2026-09-23	0.993
2026-09-22	0.934
2026-09-21	0.942
2026-09-18	0.960
2026-09-17	0.940
2026-09-16	0.972
2026-09-15	0.964
2026-09-14	0.959
2026-09-11	0.961
2026-09-10	0.948
2026-09-09	0.900
2026-09-08	0.892
2026-09-04	0.889
2026-09-03	0.881
2026-09-02	0.899
2026-09-01	0.900
2026-08-31	0.880

Reading the evidence

The Federal Reserve Board's Kim-Wright estimate of the ten-year term premium stood at 0.96 percent on September 11, up from 0.58 percent on January 2 and 0.70 percent at the end of June. That is the highest reading since February 2011. Most of this year's rise came in the third quarter, not the second: our July piece on term premium described a spring repricing the model does not show, and has been corrected. Kim-Wright is a staff research estimate, revised as new data arrive, so recent values can move.

Commentary reviewed Sep 20, 2026. Data retrieval does not update this commentary.

The Repricing Nobody Scheduled

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