The Vendor Is Now the Underwriter
Nvidia's quarter was reported as a supply story. The more consequential work was on the other side of the transaction — making someone else willing to lend against the chips.
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Our ongoing investigationsAI Infrastructure & Financing
Who pays for the build-out, how the bill reaches earnings, and what the disclosures can actually tell us.
Articles, evidence & toolsTreasury & the Cost of Debt
Follow the debt from issuance and market pricing to refinancing, interest expense, and buybacks.
Articles, evidence & toolsGo to the numbers
Primary data, explicit assumptions, and a way to check the argument yourself.
Standing trackers
10-year minus 2-year Treasury yield
0.44 percentage points · Oct 9, 2026
10-year term premium, Kim-Wright estimate
1.085 percent · Oct 2, 2026
Markets
Capital, cycles, and the price of expectations.
The Fed Went Quiet. The Treasury Did Not.
Chair Warsh used Jackson Hole to stop narrating the path of policy. The same week, Treasury was already managing the long end by buying it.
The Repricing Nobody Scheduled
Bond yields can move while the policy rate stands still. Separating the observed move from its possible causes changes the balance-sheet lesson.
What the Credit Market Knows First
Credit spreads expose refinancing and liquidity pressure. Reading them well means separating market prices, ratings decisions and the mandates that can force a sale.
Technology
The systems being built, and what they cost.
The Compute Bill Comes Due
Useful-life assumptions change reported infrastructure costs. They need to be tested alongside utilization, cash spending and the financing behind demand.
Everyone Is Building the Same Data Center
The hyperscalers compete fiercely on everything except the thing that now constrains them all: where to find the next gigawatt.
The Model Is Not the Moat
Falling inference prices and narrower benchmark gaps put model-level pricing power under pressure. Distribution, data and workflow integration deserve a separate test.
Policy
Rules, referees, and the shape of the next decade.
Insurance Is Becoming Housing Policy
Coverage used to be a cost of owning a home. In riskier places, it is becoming the mechanism that decides what can be built, bought, and financed.
Antitrust Grows Up
Platform cases test access, exclusion and market structure alongside price effects. The hardest question may be what remedy courts will accept.
Who Owns the Training Set?
The most valuable input to modern AI was assembled before anyone agreed on who owned it. The bill for that omission is now being litigated.
The record stays open
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Read the evidence, follow our revisions, and see what would change our view.